There are a handful of challenges to the dollar's top status in financial markets, according to researchers from the Brookings Institution.
布鲁金斯学会的研究人员表示，美元在金融市场的最高地位面临一些挑战。
In a recent note, the think tank pointed to the US dollar's shifting status in global financial markets, with the use of the greenback declining steadily over the past several decades. While the dollar still dominates central bank reserves and world trade, the currency accounted for 59% of all global reserves at the start of 2024, down from 71% of reserve in 1999, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund.
在最近的一份报告中，该智库指出美元在全球金融市场中的地位正在发生变化，过去几十年里美元的使用量稳步下降。尽管美元仍然主导着中央银行储备和世界贸易，但根据国际货币基金组织的估计，到2024年初，美元占全球储备总额的59%，而1999年这一比例为71%。
去几十年来，美元在全球央行储备中的份额不断下降
Meanwhile, the share of nontraditional currency reserves has edged higher. Currencies like the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and Chinese yuan accounted for 11% of all central bank reserves at the start of this year, up from 2% recorded in 1999, per IMF data.
与此同时，非传统货币储备的份额有所上升。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，今年年初澳大利亚元、瑞士法郎和人民币等货币占所有央行储备的11%，而1999年这一比例仅为2%。
人民币等非传统货币在全球储备中所占份额越来越大。
That decline has sparked some fear among investors that the dollar could soon be ousted from its top-dog position in financial markets. While most experts say that likely isn't happening anytime soon, the think tank said the dollar's dominant status faces key challenges, pointing to four factors in particular.
这种下跌引发了投资者的一些担忧，他们担心美元可能很快就会失去在金融市场的主导地位。尽管大多数专家表示这种情况可能不会很快发生，但该智库表示，美元的主导地位面临着关键挑战，特别指出了四个因素。
1. US sanctions 美国制裁
The US began implementing sanctions on Russia and its allies after Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That's sparked a de-dollarization drive in Russia and other BRICS nations, which have suggested they're looking to shift away from the dollar as a reaction to Western trade restrictions.
2022 年莫斯科开始入侵乌克兰后，美国开始对俄罗斯及其盟国实施制裁。这引发了俄罗斯和其他金砖国家的去美元化运动，这些国家表示他们正在寻求放弃美元作为回应西方贸易限制。
Russia, in particular, has taken steps to heavily de-dollarize its economy, with the nation adopting a yuan-to-ruble exchange rate, proposing a rival currency to the greenback, and reportedly spearheading an alternative payment platform that wouldn't be reliant on the dollar.
尤其是俄罗斯，已采取措施大幅推动经济去美元化，该国采用人民币兑卢布汇率，提出与美元竞争的货币，据报道还率先推出了一种不依赖的替代支付平台。关于美元。
China, which saw its companies hit with secondary sanctions from the US Treasury last week, has also signaled a shift away from the dollar, promoting its yuan as an alternative.
中国的企业上周受到美国财政部的二次制裁，中国也发出了放弃美元的信号，推广人民币作为替代货币。
"If the United States is capricious with sanctions, acts unilaterally, and fails to develop a doctrine of economic statecraft, the dollar could be dethroned," Brookings researchers said, citing comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
布鲁金斯学会的研究人员援引美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的评论称，“如果美国反复无常地实施制裁、采取单边行动，并且未能制定经济治国原则，美元可能会被废黜。”
2. US debt 美国债务
The US's rising debt load could make currency holders more wary of the dollar, especially if there are concerns that the US may not be able to pay back its dues.
美国不断上升的债务负担可能会让货币持有者对美元更加警惕，尤其是在担心美国可能无法偿还其债务的情况下。
While the US debt balance hasn't yet breached unsustainable levels, the government's rapid pace of spending has done little to ease markets. Fitch, for instance, downgraded the US credit rating last year, citing a "steady deterioration in standards of governance."
尽管美国债务余额尚未突破不可持续的水平，但政府快速的支出步伐对缓解市场影响甚微。例如，惠誉去年下调了美国的信用评级，理由是“治理标准不断恶化”。
"Bickering over appropriations, Congress has shut the government down several times. Further political instability could erode investor confidence in the dollar," the researchers said.
研究人员表示：“由于拨款问题，国会已多次关闭政府。进一步的政治不稳定可能会削弱投资者对美元的信心。”
3. Improved payment technology 更先进的支付技术
More advanced payment systems have made it easier to exchange nontraditional currencies. That could weigh on demand for the US dollar, which has traditionally been seen as the most attractive medium of exchange.
更先进的支付系统使非传统货币的兑换变得更加容易。这可能会影响对美元的需求，而美元传统上被视为最具吸引力的交易媒介。
"Typically, converting such currencies to dollars, and vice versa, has been easier and cheaper than exchanging them for one another. But China and India, for example, will soon no longer need to exchange their respective currencies for dollars to conduct trade cheaply. Rather, exchanging renminbi for rupees directly will become cheaper. Consequently, the reliance on 'vehicle currencies,' particularly the dollar, will decline," Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a previous note.“
通常情况下，将这些货币兑换成美元，反之亦然，比相互兑换更容易、更便宜。但例如，中国和印度很快将不再需要将各自的货币兑换成美元来进行廉价贸易。相反，直接将人民币兑换成卢比将会变得更便宜，因此，对‘工具货币’，特别是美元的依赖将会下降，”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)在之前的一份报告中表示。
4. Central bank digital currencies 央行数字货币
Digital currencies issued by central banks could also make it easier and cheaper to nontraditional currencies. China is developing one such CBDC, and CIPS, China's Cross-border Interbank payment system, has been "growing rapidly" over the past few years, the think-tank noted.
央行发行的数字货币也可以使非传统货币变得更容易、更便宜。该智库指出，中国正在开发这样一种CBDC ，而 CIPS（中国的跨境银行间支付系统）在过去几年中一直“快速增长”。
The Fed has created its own instant payment network, but hasn't moved to create a CBDC, with Powell suggesting last year that a digital currency would require approval from lawmakers. That means the US risks falling behind other countries, where digital payment tech is rapidly developing, Brookings researchers said.
美联储已经创建了自己的即时支付网络，但尚未采取行动创建 CBDC，鲍威尔去年暗示数字货币需要得到立法者的批准。布鲁金斯学会的研究人员表示，这意味着美国有可能落后于数字支付技术正在迅速发展的其他国家。
Still, despite warnings, most currency experts do not believe de-dollarization is a near-term threat to the US or its currency. At the moment, there are no close competitors to the greenback in financial markets — and countries that try to de-dollarize anyway risk a host of economic consequences, like slower growth and lost investment value, one commodities vet told Business Insider.
尽管如此，尽管有警告，大多数货币专家并不认为去美元化对美国或其货币构成近期威胁。一位大宗商品专家告诉《商业内幕》，目前，金融市场上没有与美元紧密相连的竞争对手，而试图去美元化的国家无论如何都会面临一系列经济后果的风险，比如增长放缓和投资价值损失。